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David Duncan

Senior Infectious Disease Modeller

David Duncan

Senior Infectious Disease Modeller

BSc PhD

david.duncan@thekids.org.au

David joined The Kids' contribution to the Australian national modelling team, advising national and state governments on their response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in September 2021. David is actively involved with the Vector Atlas project, building research capacity and reputation in malaria endemic countries in the development of new vector species maps and other spatial products that improve disease prediction, mitigation and preparedness.

David is an applied ecologist with over 20 years of experience in applied research in government and academic contexts spanning human health, biodiversity conservation, landscape ecology, evaluation of government interventions and adaptive management. Continually probing outside his comfort zone, David has developed strong interest in statistical modelling, advancing scientific integrity; and building capacity in research and analysis in under-resourced contexts.

Projects

Geospatial analysis of Japanese Encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission risk

Japanese Encephalitis virus is a mosquito-borne virus that is typically only found in south-east Asia.

Learn more about Geospatial analysis of Japanese Encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission risk

January 2024

The Vector Atlas

The Vector Atlas aims to update and create vector species maps and spatial products that improve disease prediction, mitigation and preparedness.

Learn more about The Vector Atlas

January 2024

Published research

A time-varying geospatial model of habitat suitability for Japanese encephalitis virus vectors and vertebrate hosts in Australia

In the austral summer of 2021-2022, Australia experienced an unprecedented Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak, with detections over 3000 km south of previous occurrences. Given the limited knowledge of JEV transmission ecology in Australia, we developed geospatial models of transmission risk to support the public health response. We created time-varying habitat suitability models for suspected mosquito vectors and ardeid hosts using month-scaled occurrence and covariate data from 2000-2023.

Published research Infectious Diseases Immune system Infectious Disease Ecology and Modelling Geospatial Mapping
Learn more about A time-varying geospatial model of habitat suitability for Japanese encephalitis virus vectors and vertebrate hosts in Australia

May 2026

Education and Qualifications
  • BSc (Hons), Environmental Management, Deakin University (1997)
  • PhD, Ecology, Evolution and Systematics Program, Australian National University (2004)
Active Collaborations
  • University of Melbourne - Japanese Encephalitis virus (JEV) risk-mapping and geospatial
    analysis
  • University of Melbourne & Menzies School of Health Research – ZOOMAL - Understanding One Health zoonotic disease surveillance in Indonesia: a macaque, human and land use change framework